SIR model adjustments to the initial data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina
Abstract
This article presents a study using data provided by the Argentine Ministry of Health on the number of people infected, deceased and recovered by the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019). The standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is used to simulate the infected population of this epidemic in Argentine. The SIR model, developed by Ronald Ross, William Hamer, and others, is a mathematical model representation of how an infection spreads across a population over time. This model has two parameters, the transmission rate per capita, β, and the recovery rate, , where 1/ is the average time that the individual remains infected. In this work, parameter is considered fixed and β parameter is adjusted over time with real data, in three different ways, which are then compared by simulating the epidemic evolution using the SIR model. Results obtained using real data from the beginning of the pandemic, from March 3rd to July 21th, 2020, are shown. Finally, it is concluded that the model fits the data from Argentine satisfactorily as a consequence of the proposed temporal variation of β over short and medium-term.
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References
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